A lot of things in modern tech we don't think are useful- up-front design, code comments, estimations- are just skills we aren't pushed to practice. Of course they won't be useful if we're terrible at doing them!
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But a 2200 USCF player is roughly top 1000 in the U.S., perhaps 1 in 100000 across all people who have played chess in the U.S., not 1 in 20, off by 4-5 orders of magnitude. I think looking at NBA players is probably an error of 5+ orders of magnitude.
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I should've added examples in various endeavors to provide a frame of reference for people who have the intuition that 1 in 20 (pretty good middle school basketball player, often picked first in gym class) = NBA player (literally among the best in the world).
End of conversation
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