Going to write down a few predictions for ten years from now. Here’s one: contra https://www.jefftk.com/p/programmers-should-plan-for-lower-pay … and other people I respect, I think total compensation for software engineers on a real (inflation-adjusted) basis will be materially higher in 2030 than in 2020.
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Replying to @patio11
Both of these can be true: pay will probably be higher and programmers should plan on pay being lower.
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Replying to @davidcrawshaw @patio11
In the comments, Jeff says that he gives devs a 15% chance of taking a pay cut by 2030, so the question is: Would you make this bet at 7:1 odds? https://www.jefftk.com/p/programmers-should-plan-for-lower-pay#lw-5HhXAsAQPmkPwzybk …
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If there was a financial instrument that let me place that bet, I'd hold the other side as a hedge against my career income. A related question: a young person asks you if they should be a programmer. Assume income is going down in the next ten years, what do you say?
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Replying to @davidcrawshaw @patio11
Depends on the size? If it's "only" by 2x, I don't think that changes the equation much? That puts someone at $150k to $2xxk total comp at "senior" and maybe $225k to $3xxk at "staff", excluding outsized bonuses and stock appreciation? WLB adjusted, seems like a good deal.
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If the cut is down to the level some of my ME or Civ acquaintances get, $60k for new grads, $100k pretty good for experienced folks, then it could make sense to work a much higher paying career for 5-10 years and do programming in retirement if so inclined, depending on interests
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Yep, agree on hedging. If someone were offering up 7:1 on that bet, I think a lot of programmers would take it even if they thought it was negative expected value. The hedging you can do (with puts or whatever) doesn't directly protect you, a bet would be much better.
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