I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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Replying to @patio11
Considering the extreme confidence in and around the post (post says that the most likely way the bet could fail is due to bad macro conditions, higher interest rates, anyone who would bet against any single of the three conditions probably isn't competent to be a VC...
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...with most public responses from VCs being that it's a sucker bet, of course it's going to succeed, in each basket one individual company will satisfy the criteria, Uber alone will satisfy the criteria, etc.), I find it odd that you're using this as a counterexample.
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Replying to @danluu
A synthesis of our points of view on the matter is that, if forcing people to crystallize the intuition "It's going to be a rough five years for startups" into "Oh *obviously* we're still going to mint a $3 billion dollar company ex niliio. Who'd be the idiot to say otherwise?"
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then the bet (or prediction; I tend to think the money part is uninteresting at most margins) functions as a mechanism for causing the market to converge on truth irrespective of whether the bet succeeds or not.
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I also think the public commentary/private commentary part gets a little weird because of signaling and extreme social non-desirability of calling out an important market node. My perception of the discourse was "A bet is a tax on bullshit. There has been a great deal of it."
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Or, to take it from the other side, where's the person who said "I am the confident, rational Uber bear. It is worth $50 billion and not one penny higher, damn you all." There are a lot of people who said "Uber will go out of business" and are now saying "I. Told. You. Soooooo."
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Of the replies to the original Twitter thread that haven't been deleted (the Uber alone will hit the number alone VC seems to have deleted their tweet), there's only one real skeptic, who is quite reasonable IMOhttps://medium.com/@twnutt/a-response-to-sam-altman-and-an-alternative-wager-de456e8bf450 …
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I don't doubt that you can find people who said that Uber was going to go under, but if you look at the responses to the bet we're discussing, there seem to be a lot more people who took the other side or an even stronger position with extreme confidence.
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