I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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Replying to @patio11
Considering the extreme confidence in and around the post (post says that the most likely way the bet could fail is due to bad macro conditions, higher interest rates, anyone who would bet against any single of the three conditions probably isn't competent to be a VC...
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...with most public responses from VCs being that it's a sucker bet, of course it's going to succeed, in each basket one individual company will satisfy the criteria, Uber alone will satisfy the criteria, etc.), I find it odd that you're using this as a counterexample.
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If anything, the discussion around the bet makes it seem obvious in retrospect that VCs were wildly optimistic compared to reality -- macro conditions are still favorable, interest rates at historic lows, etc., and at best the bet will be a near thing, probably will fail?
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