I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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A synthesis of our points of view on the matter is that, if forcing people to crystallize the intuition "It's going to be a rough five years for startups" into "Oh *obviously* we're still going to mint a $3 billion dollar company ex niliio. Who'd be the idiot to say otherwise?"
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then the bet (or prediction; I tend to think the money part is uninteresting at most margins) functions as a mechanism for causing the market to converge on truth irrespective of whether the bet succeeds or not.
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If anything, the discussion around the bet makes it seem obvious in retrospect that VCs were wildly optimistic compared to reality -- macro conditions are still favorable, interest rates at historic lows, etc., and at best the bet will be a near thing, probably will fail?
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