I should make more 5 and 10 year out predictions, because people are very recency-biased in their view of the world and "Hey let's revisit this list from 5 years ago" helps to combat that. A great example:https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
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...with most public responses from VCs being that it's a sucker bet, of course it's going to succeed, in each basket one individual company will satisfy the criteria, Uber alone will satisfy the criteria, etc.), I find it odd that you're using this as a counterexample.
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A synthesis of our points of view on the matter is that, if forcing people to crystallize the intuition "It's going to be a rough five years for startups" into "Oh *obviously* we're still going to mint a $3 billion dollar company ex niliio. Who'd be the idiot to say otherwise?"
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