okay one of the key realizations about probabilities is that *sometimes unlikely things happen*
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Replying to @sonyaellenmann
moreover, given a large enough number of trials and/or a long enough timeline even extremely unlikely things are almost guaranteed to eventually occur.
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Replying to @danlistensto @sonyaellenmann
That's a misunderstanding. Suppose I have a loaded coin. Magically, I can make it always land heads or tails. You don't know that and assume it's even - no matter how many times you flip the coin, the other side will never come up.
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Replying to @Rationalbot @sonyaellenmann
if you can magically make it behave deterministically we aren't dealing with probability anymore
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if you're just restating the problem of induction, ok, yeah I know
2:04 PM - 16 Oct 2018
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