okay one of the key realizations about probabilities is that *sometimes unlikely things happen*
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I'm not dealing with probability - you are, because you have no clue what the actual bias of a coin is and so are left with the natural assumption that it's just a regular coin that's more or less equally likely to land on either side.
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You're conflating subjective uncertainty over states of the coin with risk inherent in objective lotteries, which was the point of the example. The truth of the statement you made critically depends on assumptions of a particular decision model.
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in the original post of this thread, Sonya made it perfectly clear she's discussing probabilistic situations. you're the one who derailed this by talking about secretly magical deterministic coins.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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if you're just restating the problem of induction, ok, yeah I know
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