this is a counter-intuitive point that I first learned and internalized during my Magic: the Gathering hobby years. (yes I'm a huge nerd, surprising to nobody) If any of you are familiar with some years-old gaming jargon, this is the idea of not succumbing to "the fear".https://twitter.com/CurlOfGradient/status/1050422663489970177 …
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just make sure you choose the strategy that has a predator that is susceptible to something you crush. if your advantage over your predator's predator isn't large enough the expected value of your metagame gamble won't make it to positive.
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summary: play to your strengths and always propitiate Fortuna
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