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danlistensto's profile
Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop
Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop
Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop
@danlistensto

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Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop

@danlistensto

Moloch's janitor

Joined August 2014

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    1. Andreⓐ‏ @puellavulnerata Jun 13
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @eigenrobot

      You just made up the distribution and assumed it's the same on both sides though, and you started all this drawing an existential conclusion from a statistical claim

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 13
      Replying to @puellavulnerata @eigenrobot

      “and assumed it’s the same on both sides” 1) irrelevant criticism — only one tail is relevant here, 2) assumption of normality is fairly common when true distribution is unknown.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Nathaniel Bechhofer  🌐‏ @bechhof Jun 13
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @puellavulnerata @eigenrobot

      Using normal distributions to guess at what happens in tails is a really bad idea

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 13
      Replying to @bechhof @puellavulnerata @eigenrobot

      1) No, Nathaniel, it is not as bad as you think it is 2) In the context of speculative twitter pontification it most certainly isn't

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Saloni‏ @salonium Jun 14
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @bechhof and

      "2) In the context of speculative twitter pontification it most certainly isn't" Do you ever hear yourself? You just went on a long and condescending rant only to end with that - hilarious

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 14
      Replying to @salonium @bechhof and

      What is your point?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 14
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @salonium and

      If my point wasn’t clear to you, it’s this: if I were to defend this in a paper, I would probably lose, because the evidence I brought forth is indeed speculative. On the other hand, I’ve seen way more poorly defended Twitter arguments.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop‏ @danlistensto Jun 14
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @salonium and

      I think it's really fun to play around with potentially (or even probably) bogus ideas on twitter. it should be play though. when it gets argumentative like this, and when you're going into the minutia about which assumptions about a stat model are ok you're not playing anymore.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 14
      Replying to @danlistensto @salonium and

      And I am indeed am not “playing” anymore — making inferences about tails is certainly valid enough TO PROPOSE A GODDAMN HYPOTHESIS, which is what I did. In fact it would be a valid enough reason to publish this hypothesis — but not to validate it (yet).

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. After Sol‏ @Locus_of_Ctrl Jun 14
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @danlistensto and

      There are several levels of inquiry: 1) wild speculative 2) informed hypothetical 3) deductive/empirical (validation) My initial tweet was (1). By explaining my reasoning statistically, I reached (2). I never claimed to be at (3).

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Dan listens to rain falling on the rooftop‏ @danlistensto Jun 14
      Replying to @Locus_of_Ctrl @salonium and

      all I'm really trying to say at this point is "dude, chill, this is just a bull session"

      7:01 AM - 14 Jun 2018
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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