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danhreck's profile
Daniel Reck
Daniel Reck
Daniel Reck
@danhreck

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Daniel Reck

@danhreck

Hello Internet, this is Daniel. I am an Assistant Professor of Economics @LSEEcon with interests in behavioral & public economics.

London, England
danreck.com
Joined October 2016

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    1. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      Here is a thread about the bad takes I am seeing on Twitter about the Trump tax story. If your gut reaction is nihilistic, cynical, or dismissive, I am going to try to change your mind.

      98 replies . 2,864 retweets 8,477 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      BAD TAKE 1: this is all 100% legal, the rich have loopholes.” We can’t diagnose evasion conclusively from the return alone, but the reporting describes some super suspicious activity. Three things jump out:

      9 replies . 245 retweets 2,188 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      1) He is in protracted litigation with auditors that could saddle him with >$70 million in taxes. This is over a dubious loss carryforward that he probably wasn’t allowed to claim.

      6 replies . 233 retweets 2,417 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      2) >$20 million in consulting fees apparently paid to his kids. This is a common tactic to dodge estate/gift taxes, but paying higher than market salaries is illegal. Especially telling: some of his business partners apparently had no idea their business was hiring “consultants.”

      24 replies . 348 retweets 3,038 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      3) a large number of personal expenses claimed as business expenses. Flights, hairstyling, you name it. Also commonly done, but not legal. Honorable mention: the reporting about the Seven Springs estate looks pretty fishy as well.

      12 replies . 222 retweets 2,560 likes
      Show this thread
      Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

      Anyway, these really don’t look legal, these look like Trump violating the tax code and daring the IRS to enter into years of litigation to do anything about it, which in one instance they’ve actually done. (There is some old-fashioned legal tax avoidance going on too though!)

      2:07 am - 28 Sep 2020
      • 247 Retweets
      • 2,450 Likes
      • Stephen Paul Pierce Arner FandomManic00 Leroy J. Barrett III Memetic Level MaxwellsDeamon, blm, 😷 Luke Kathryn Cramer Maria Kirchner
      12 replies . 247 retweets 2,450 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          BAD TAKE 2: “he’s either the worlds worst businessman or the world’s worst tax cheat.” This one I’m forgiving of because this is where I was myself before the new reporting. But after reading all this, the inescapable conclusion is that it’s BOTH.

          19 replies . 361 retweets 2,996 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          Ok he may or may not be the “world’s worst” tax cheat. But the activity above makes it plain he is trying every trick in the book to cheat. So, is he actually making huge profits and just claiming all these losses to dodge taxes?

          9 replies . 150 retweets 1,778 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          Well, he is also saddled with at least $400 million in debt, up to $1 billion by some others’ reporting. Some particularly huge loans come due in 2020 and he is making zero payment on the principle. That’s not something you’re a prospering businessman.

          24 replies . 253 retweets 2,265 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          So both things must be true: he violated tax law repeatedly and his businesses are failing. It’s no longer either/or, not with what we know now.

          7 replies . 324 retweets 2,534 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          BAD TAKE 3: “We knew all of this already.” No, we simply didn’t. To use an old metaphor, we were stumbling around in the dark feeling out little pieces of the giant elephant in prior reporting, but now we’re seeing the whole elephant. We hadn’t even seen all the pieces before.

          19 replies . 304 retweets 2,799 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          (Ok it’s not a perfect metaphor because there is even more beyond the tax returns that we still don’t know. We will probably never see the entire big picture, but further investigation by journalists or prosecutors could reveal a lot.)

          15 replies . 115 retweets 1,590 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          BAD TAKE 4: “this doesn’t matter.” This take is always bad because we the people get to decide whether it matters with our votes and our speech. But also, think about what a potential future Biden administration (*knocks on wood*) can do with this story.

          21 replies . 233 retweets 2,413 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          This reporting created more public attention to tax avoidance and evasion by the rich in one day than we have ever had. It is a roadmap of ways the wealthy aggressively minimize their taxes. Democrats can and should leverage this story to level the tax playing field for everyone.

          37 replies . 828 retweets 4,485 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          In summary: This really is news. He’s a terrible businessman, but he also seems to have actually cheated. And it matters. We can do something about it. The first thing we can do about it is go and vote.

          39 replies . 547 retweets 4,021 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Daniel Reck‏ @danhreck 28 Sep 2020

          My notifications are going nuts so a few corrections: 1) the loans are due in 2022 according to the Times story, not 2020 2) "principal" not "principle." Embarrassing. 3) Left out some words in the tweet about debt as well, I think you can work out what I meant.

          53 replies . 169 retweets 2,536 likes
          Show this thread
        12. End of conversation

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