Folks, absolutely too early to conclude that Omicron is milder or more severe on average, or that vaccine efficacy will be preserved as is, or not—or even why exactly it's spreading. Just too early, and I would not pay any attention to conclusive sounding statements. Needs time.
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From the sequence and what we know so far, maybe the one thing we can say is good level of antibody evasion is baked in—more breakthroughs. But that, by itself, doesn't tell us what it means for the pandemic. Remember Beta? B.1.351? Antibody evasion but little impact on pandemic.
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For all we know, it's spreading only because of antibody evasion, not higher transmissibility. Or not. Or that it's so different than the OG virus that it's not as good at replicating. Or maybe it's really severe for the unvaccinated. We don't know yet. WE. DON'T. KNOW.
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
Thanks to South Africa, we learned about this threat very early. They will likely be the ones to tell us more. (Though I suspect they are too responsible to do so, who'd blame them if they held the information till we at least apologize for our response).https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1465334340255113218 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepI get this. The key here is communicating that, unlike Alpha and Delta, we got an early enough warning with Omicron that… we DON’T know if it is a big threat, but we should act like it *might* be till we figure it out a bit more. It could fizzle out or it could be a big threat. https://twitter.com/natem42/status/1465075979462742016 …Show this thread7 replies 25 retweets 271 likesShow this thread -
zeynep tufekci Retweeted JJota
I hope that's a misphrasing. Yeah, "there's no evidence": exactly, there's no strong evidence either way. Most cases of *all* variants, even Delta, are mild. The question is, on average, where does this fall, and why? We. Don't. and. Can't. Yet. Know.https://twitter.com/jjcalles/status/1466109069987622913 …
zeynep tufekci added,
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zeynep tufekci Retweeted zeynep tufekci
I updated my NYT piece a tiny bit when it came out in print yesterday, but the same principle holds. We don't know. We *should* act defensively, till we know more, but in a targeted, smart way, not in a performative manner merely targeting passports.https://twitter.com/zeynep/status/1464994776365871105 …
zeynep tufekci added,
zeynep tufekciVerified account @zeynepSouth Africa has gifted us an early warning with Omicron. But earlier the warning, the less we know. Still, we must act now, while waiting for clarity. We need smart, comprehensive measures, not pandemic theater. Can we please, finally learn? New from me: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/28/opinion/covid-omicron-travel-ban-testing.html … pic.twitter.com/O3EI8lDam6Show this thread2 replies 19 retweets 182 likesShow this thread -
Personally, I'd be surprised if vaccine efficacy against breakthroughs didn't take a hit and there weren't more reinfections because of Omicron. But will those breakthroughs/re-infections be symptomatic? Mild? Severe? Will it spread widely? Don't know. Have to wait. No shortcuts.
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Why assume vaccine efficacy will take a hit without any evidence suggesting so at this point? Isn’t that the same as assuming the cases have all been mild?
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Replying to @damagecase1982 @zeynep
Vaccine efficacy is an unchanging wall (think rock wall). Generations of marauders try to breach and can't, but they don't give up. They adapt and never stop trying. Given enough time the marauders will succeed. If marauders die out first the wall stands.
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