that is not an encouraging survival ratehttps://twitter.com/chenxiwang/status/1222306904149348354 …
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Dan Kaminsky je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceChenxi Wang
that is not an encouraging survival ratehttps://twitter.com/chenxiwang/status/1222306904149348354 …
Dan Kaminsky je dodan/na,
The “cured” criteria is 7-10 days without fever (depending on regional authority), so it’s a bit difficult to get the latter number up as it’s been like, maybe 10 days total since the significant diagnosed numbers began
Wouldn’t there be a rolling window effect, though? I suppose as infection spreads the leading edge is much larger than the trailing edge. Death registers faster than life.
I’m definitely not an infectious disease professional of any kind but it totally makes sense that death (esp in elderly, underlying conditions, complications) are going to register much faster in these very early days while the recovered cases wait for the 7 day green light
(And the milder cases disproportionally not be present in the the already overburdened, heavily triaged health system at all)
For takes from actual infectious disease experts @EpiEllie’s list is excellent https://twitter.com/i/lists/1220869298631200769 …
What’s your take (heh) on what people are getting wrong?
I actually don’t have a good sense of what people in general think about the outbreak at all… Which is probably not dissimilar to the public re: infosec
I don’t have a good sense of how real the “R0==3.8” “thermonuclear epidemic” fear reaction is, or should be. That number, and China’s apparent reaction (no international conferences for six months) is ... new data and evidenced behavior.
Oh, definitely ignore that guy, who is not to be taken seriously. (Best people can tell he's trying to McAfee himself for a political run). R0's consistently settling down between 2 and 3 from multiple groups; China's measures no one knows whether great or counterproductive yet
What R0 was SARS?
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