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Again, large losses + not great unit economics + slow growth + low entry barriers + traditional one-sided business model make for tough headwinds. As mentioned earlier though, at least now some of these factors are being priced into Casper's IPO price.
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Further context: it worries me that even though
$CSPR had 60 retail locations as of Q3 2019, most of which were opened in 2019, DTC growth rate was just 13%. What would that growth had been without those new store openings? w/ comments from yours truly...https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/casper-prices-ipo-at-12-a-share-report-says.html …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Daniel McCarthy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Accounting is INFORMATION. Voluntary disclosure is always the results of a cost and benefit analysis
@lev_baruch@JoachimGassen#disclosure#Accounting#informationhttps://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1225199669896151040 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
To the defense of those earlier private
$CSPR investors: the category as a whole was growing much more quickly in early 2019. It was really only over the past 12 months that we've seen a fairly dramatic slowdown in growth (at company and category). Low CLV + low growth =
https://twitter.com/eliotwb/status/1225106618842398720 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
[2/2] Also, their monthly churn rate is not skyrocketing, but rather is steadily marching towards what we would expect from a company whose baseline E(lifetime) is probably closer to 5-7 years (i.e., no retention "smoking gun"):http://bit.ly/2LhLCAW
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[1/2]“History would suggest that this sort of snafu will be short-lived... If people forget about the ad . . . but remember
$PTON, it might end up being more beneficial than it seems.” (http://bit.ly/2PmrL5s ) Sounds about right.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peloton-girl-ad-powers-a-big-quarter-for-digital-bike-maker-210506052.html …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Unit economics matter (http://bit.ly/36IuzAy ), and in this case we're not even getting much of a growth story at the company or category level (http://bit.ly/36XxVQf ). But at least now, some of these factors are being priced into
$CSPR's IPO price.https://cnb.cx/31qH0zYHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Those who know me know this is something I could really get behind.https://twitter.com/LafeHale/status/1224845657002954755 …
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[3/5] 3/US subscription-only meal kit category is growing far slower than earlier estimates. 4/HLFFF retention & CAC are flat, while
$APRN's has gotten worse, falling to HLFFF levels. 5/$APRN, main competitor, continues to sink to new lows every day on shrinking revenues.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
[2/5]The fact pattern, as I can see it: 1/ HLFFF's retention is provably very low in the US: http://bit.ly/32xXS7D (independently confirmed by
@second_measure). 2/ HLFFF says overseas retention is comparable to US, implying ROW retention must be very low as well.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
[1/5]Interesting thoughts, as always, in
@ataussig's post. Always delicate writing about multiples given the ease w/ which they can be misused, but Alex stresses that throughout. Not to beat a dead horse, but an interesting company mentioned is$HLFFF.http://bit.ly/31xoypHPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Daniel McCarthy proslijedio/la je TweetHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Daniel McCarthy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Professor McCarthy has been spot on with every one of his IPO analyses in the DTC space since I started following him. If he says tread carefully with the
$CSPR IPO, look out. You’d be wise to listen.https://twitter.com/d_mccar/status/1222928055926231040 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Unit economics not good now, slowing growth, category not growing, execution and retail partner competition risk high => hard to see how CBCV drivers get better. Seems risky to pay ~2x revenues for this...
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4/ Second Measure data implies DTC bed-in-a-box is slowing (see chart). The category is not growing much (or at all?). 5/
$CSPR sales growth is slower than you think. Topline sales growth is 20%, but DTC sales (84% of total) only grew 13%. 13% -- almost single digits!pic.twitter.com/KVq8HBE4Zh
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2/ If their repeat business per acquired customer were to double, their marketing ROI would still be less than 60%. This is still low. 3/ Accessories are their big repeat business driver, but does selling good beds mean people will love their pillows.
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$CSPR's IPO is looking to price at a ~$700-800M implied valuation. From a CBCV perspective, I'd watch out. A few thoughts: 1/ Simple calculations show their CLV is currently middling at best (http://bit.ly/36IuzAy ). Real Q is where the CBCV drivers go from here...Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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