1/ The most popular market was "Will France Defeat Belgium in the 2018 FIFA World Cup Semifinals?" The odds updated as goals were scored, and trustless sports betting will likely be a killer feature.
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2/ Obviously, politics is a huge area of interest. "Will Donald J. Trump be elected AND inaugurated as President of the United States for the 2021-2025 presidential term?" will also likely be a huge market.
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3/ Keep in mind that markets like this are currently *illegal* in the United States. The closest that exists is PredictIt, which limits to some hundreds of dollars per person.
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4/ Will Augur's prediction markets operate outside the law? Great question! And one that will certainly put the notion of "censorship-resistance" to the test.
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5/ My favorite use case: trustless derivatives markets! "Will Ethereum trade above 500$ in July 2018?" Any crypto trader today who's talked to an OTC desk such as Cumberland or Octagon knows the difficulties in creating/trading crypto derivatives.
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6/ Centralized derivatives exchanges have spent countless years trying to drum up all the right licenses and regulations. Will Augur be able to sidestep that all in one go? Certainly something to think about.
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7/ Don't forget, you can trade non-crypto derivatives as well. "Will the S&P 500 close above 2900 on July 31, 2018?" already exists as a market.
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8/ Last one: how long will Tether insiders refuse the free money they can earn with the "Will Tether (USDT) be found to have been manipulated by end of 2018?" market? Insider information will start to become more widespread.
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9/ The best site that exists for tracking markets that I've seen thus far is https://predictions.global
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the question is will Augur be the winner in this space? Their launch was pretty disastrous. They don’t have a hosted web application, gas fees are high and the UX is terrible. Also, Oracle problem is still relevant.
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There aren't really any competitors right now who are currently as far along as Augur. Also, I wouldn't call UI/UX issues "disastrous." I think this is a landmark moment!
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What was good about the experience? I think this is a pretty good thread.https://twitter.com/bmbernstein/status/1016691503501111296?s=21 …
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I never said the experience was good? The fact that it *works* is enough of an achievement. Are you willing to bet against the UI/UX improving over time?
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I know. You said the UI/UX wasn’t disastrous. What was good about it? I think it should do more than just work. I think it’ll improve, but will people be using it. People who have bad first experiences usually don’t come back.
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I never said (or meant to say) the UI/UX was/wasn't disastrous. What I was trying to say (and looking back I realize it's confusing) was that bad UI/UX doesn't make *the launch* disastrous.
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Got it! Makes sense. I’m disappointed in the launch because they had so much time and so much money. It makes you question why they don’t have a better product. The real question is, what will the KPIs look like in 6 months. I’d expect them to be disappointing. Time will tell.
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It's an MVP launch. Minimal Viable Product. You should be shocked if it *did* work perfectly without any pain points right out of the gate. The UX will improve with feedback and iteration. v1.0.0 is not a finished product.
- 9টি আরও উত্তর
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Can't wait for truly contentious ones involving programmers interpreting IF/AND/OR differently from the rest of the world, missing Oxford commas, and a nice bunch of double negatives.
ধন্যবাদ। আপনার সময়রেখাকে আরো ভালো করে তুলতে টুইটার এটিকে ব্যবহার করবে। পূর্বাবস্থায়পূর্বাবস্থায়
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ধন্যবাদ। আপনার সময়রেখাকে আরো ভালো করে তুলতে টুইটার এটিকে ব্যবহার করবে। পূর্বাবস্থায়পূর্বাবস্থায়
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লোড হতে বেশ কিছুক্ষণ সময় নিচ্ছে।
টুইটার তার ক্ষমতার বাইরে চলে গেছে বা কোনো সাময়িক সমস্যার সম্মুখীন হয়েছে আবার চেষ্টা করুন বা আরও তথ্যের জন্য টুইটারের স্থিতি দেখুন।