Your occasional reminder that economists have no idea what the impact of climate change on our economy will be. They don't even agree on the shape of the function. From En-ROADS:pic.twitter.com/W8aJ7UPz3R
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The key implication is that we are under conditions of decision making under deep uncertainty. The focus should be on making decisions that are robust in the face of a range of possible outcomes.
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Many economists (except those making macro projections) will tell you that the best academic and government economic projections are often way off. The US and world economies are very complicated. Like climate. Look at inflation predictions. The current rate is running at 6.2%>
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The major forecasters said it would be 1.6%-2.8%. The Federal Open Market Committee in mid-March predicted 2.4% This case is not unusual. In the late 1990s almost all economists agreed the new digital economy was recession proof. Then the banking and housing markets melted. >>
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Start putting economics on more physical footings!
@nephologue@ProfSteveKeenhttps://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672 …Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Those graphs bring to mind the variability in CMIP models predicting avg T over different RCPs, right? Oh, shoot, I shouldn't have written that. It doesn't fit Andrew's narrative at all.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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I agree, but would add "... and in the face that risk is assymetrical. Global warming can be turned on, but not off."
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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Good policy has three fundamental criteria. 1) it has to be fair 2) it has to be affordable, and 3) it has to work.
Kiitos. Käytämme tätä aikajanasi parantamiseen. KumoaKumoa
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