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And let us know what you think of the new survey format!https://twitter.com/ReplicationMkts/status/1224305063612637185 …
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Hey - do any
@ReplicationMkts forecasters use GRIM, Statcheck, etc.? Test the digit distribution? WebPlotDigitizer? Other tools similar to those mentioned here?https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/research-intelligence-how-sniff-out-errors-and-fraud#survey-answer …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
But (b) implies c) smaller average payout per market. Revising budget now to minimize the impact - new rules posted next week.
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Starting in Round 6, we will follow the larger SCORE project to a unified definition of "replication". Main effects: a) Surveys get shorter, b) More markets resolve - from R6, not just "direct" replications count!https://twitter.com/ReplicationMkts/status/1222867054857863168 …
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This is good news for
@ReplicationMkts forecasters who use the scite widget.https://twitter.com/scite/status/1223241549510774784 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
An elegant twin-book review essay by Philosopher Philip Kitcher on replication, fraud, and slow science [journalism]: Has Science Journalism Helped Unmask a “Replication Crisis” in Biomedicine?http://disq.us/t/3jw4ulh
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Mason provost S. David Wu on academic freedom: https://provostblog.gmu.edu/on-freedom-of-speech-and-academic-freedom/ …
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Charles R. Twardy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Hot off the presses! See the Round 5 Survey winners here! https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/2020/01/27/announcing-round-5-survey-winners/ …
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It was a problematic survey - "opposite" answers A & F were both true. S makes sound critiques, and I wonder a bit about H&I carefulness. But most interesting is H&I's response to his Bayes frame: they simply think his skeptical prior not enough so. A defensible disagreement.https://twitter.com/vamrhein/status/1221819073446760450 …
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Nearly 100 participants in Round5. And nearly 2,500 trades. If you haven't looked at Round 5 yet, jump in. As always, "Edit out of outrage" as
@rhanson says - fix what's most wrong. A good start: review the least-traded claims. (Default sort.) They look OK? Look into 1?https://twitter.com/ReplicationMkts/status/1220689358073880577 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Charles R. Twardy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Yes, we have over 1000 people registered for our project. And yes, it is a small group of active participants ... less than 10% of you are forecasting in Round 5 markets. If you haven't made your first trade yet, why not start today? https://predict.replicationmarkets.com
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News article summarizing the results - https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Software+searches+out+reproducibility+issues+in+scientific+papers&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fd41586-020-00104-6 …
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2019 vs 1997: "randomization ...up from 10-30%, power calculation from 2-10%, reporting sex from 22-37%, and antibodies ...43% [vs] 12%. So, ...better, but ...half of papers don’t tell you the sex of experimental subjects and how they are divided into groups. "https://twitter.com/RetractionWatch/status/1219938816313712642 …
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Charles R. Twardy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Quiet day in the Round 5 markets...a great day to jump in and make a trade! Did you know that all the claims you reviewed in the surveys are available in the markets? Find them under All Claims and show My Surveys. https://predict.replicationmarkets.com
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Nifty. Adding
@njit decorator makes Python competitive with C++ on the recursive N-queens problem. "Develop in ordinary Python, identify computational bottlenecks, and use Numba to remove them." https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.02491.pdf …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
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"People who do well..." - refers to published work on Bayesian Truth Serum: people who answer "a" but correctly predict most people will say "b" probably know something. We won't *know* if that's true in our data until mid-2020. But it's encouraging.
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In our
@ReplicationMkts surveys, two questions ask how other people will respond - these can be evaluated immediately. People who do well on these meta-Qs tend to do well on the main Qs. Our peer-prediction AUC score on main Qs correlates 70-86% with AUC on these meta Qs.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Your surveys only affect the survey average - it has no voice in the market unless you speak for it. Re-use your work! Nudge the market towards the truth. Just once, or better, a little each day. Find and fix the claims that are crazy wrong. Share your knowledge!https://twitter.com/ReplicationMkts/status/1218307081897500672 …
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Charles R. Twardy proslijedio/la je Tweet
Lots of new traders in the Round 5 markets since yesterday! If you haven't already...join in! You've got free points to invest, and you'll help build our dataset...for science! https://predict.replicationmarkets.com pic.twitter.com/fXkzsAsnXf
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