This will cause an apparent drop in VE over time, even if the vaccine keeps working as well as ever. Imagine a vaccine that has 90% VE when no one in the population has natural immunity. If half the unvaccinated population acquires (perfect) natural immunity, VE drops to 80%.
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Thank you to
@jbakcoleman for reminding me of this in light of recent discussions.Show this thread
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French researchers tested how well antibodies produced by natural infection and by Covid vaccines neutralize the delta variant The researchers looked at blood samples from 103 people who had been infected with the Covid. Delta was much less sensitivehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/07/09/world/delta-immune-system/ …
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This study neglects to mention B-Cells & T-Cells at all.
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I firmly believe that infections have been woefully underestimated. I also think that reinfections have been far more prevalent than most experts believe.
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At the same time, the waning immunity of the vaccinated complicates the issue. We don't have good data on the increased risk of serious illness of vulnerable populations who had vaccinations 6 or more months ago.
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Actually Israel now has a sizeable population of elderly people who were vaccinated 6+ months ago and protection against severe illness is still at 86%https://youtu.be/rAqVAiPXbJc?t=418 …
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Could the trials just split the results into those who did and did not have prior antibodies?
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I suppose this is an issue more with non-clinical trial studies.
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