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CT_Bergstrom's profile
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
Carl T. Bergstrom
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@CT_Bergstrom

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Carl T. BergstromVerified account

@CT_Bergstrom

#BlackLivesMatter Information flow in bio, society, & science. Book *Calling Bullshit*: http://tinyurl.com/y7ekfkhx  I love crows and ravens. he/him

Duwamish Lands (Seattle)
ctbergstrom.com
Joined June 2015

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    Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Aug 4

    Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is a relative measure comparing infection risk of vaccinated to unvaccinated individuals. But the risk to unvaccinated people is a moving target. As the pandemic progresses, the fraction of unvaccinated individuals with prior natural immunity increases.

    10:51 AM - 4 Aug 2021
    • 539 Retweets
    • 3,705 Likes
    • Udit Arora Hironori Funabiki PepeDePablos Martin Nava Henri Mourant Benjamin Gorman 🍎 urs.px Ronaldo Appreciator Noah
    61 replies 539 retweets 3,705 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Aug 4

        This will cause an apparent drop in VE over time, even if the vaccine keeps working as well as ever. Imagine a vaccine that has 90% VE when no one in the population has natural immunity. If half the unvaccinated population acquires (perfect) natural immunity, VE drops to 80%.

        27 replies 124 retweets 1,115 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Carl T. Bergstrom‏Verified account @CT_Bergstrom Aug 4

        Thank you to @jbakcoleman for reminding me of this in light of recent discussions.

        16 replies 15 retweets 594 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Carol Forden‏ @CarolForden Aug 4
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        French researchers tested how well antibodies produced by natural infection and by Covid vaccines neutralize the delta variant The researchers looked at blood samples from 103 people who had been infected with the Covid. Delta was much less sensitivehttps://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/07/09/world/delta-immune-system/ …

        1 reply 5 retweets 14 likes
      3. Overweeeeener‏ @TheOverweener Aug 4
        Replying to @CarolForden @CT_Bergstrom

        This study neglects to mention B-Cells & T-Cells at all.

        1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Mazda Sabouri‏ @msabouri Aug 4
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        I firmly believe that infections have been woefully underestimated. I also think that reinfections have been far more prevalent than most experts believe.

        9 replies 0 retweets 43 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. John Muench‏ @John_Muench Aug 4
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        At the same time, the waning immunity of the vaccinated complicates the issue. We don't have good data on the increased risk of serious illness of vulnerable populations who had vaccinations 6 or more months ago.

        1 reply 2 retweets 25 likes
      3. Erik Lönnroth‏ @eriklonnroth Aug 4
        Replying to @John_Muench @CT_Bergstrom

        Actually Israel now has a sizeable population of elderly people who were vaccinated 6+ months ago and protection against severe illness is still at 86%https://youtu.be/rAqVAiPXbJc?t=418 …

        2 replies 3 retweets 36 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Said‏ @Chris_Said Aug 4
        Replying to @CT_Bergstrom

        Could the trials just split the results into those who did and did not have prior antibodies?

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Chris Said‏ @Chris_Said Aug 4
        Replying to @Chris_Said @CT_Bergstrom

        I suppose this is an issue more with non-clinical trial studies.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies

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