And we ALSO don’t have data for how many voters an actual progressive agenda turns away. Certainly it’s hard to blame Democrats for losing with McGovern et al and only getting two terms with arch neoliberal Clinton, and then thinking American voters want centrists.
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Replying to @csilverandgold
All that said, I think now is the perfect time to push for more progressive economic policy, bc the most economically squeamish part of our coalition in the burbs doesn’t like Trump very much, and are likely to turn out for any Dem, even one farther left than they’d prefer.
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Replying to @csilverandgold
I think the argument boils down to this: we don’t know how much a populist argument fuels turnout. The populist economic policy planks are now (thanks in part to Obama btw) not so far apart from the nominally centrist ones.
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Replying to @csilverandgold
So what it boils down to is trust more than policy, I think. And I happen to think what politician you trust has more to do with the dreaded identity politics (and who speaks to your identity/culture) than with class because *waves hand at US history*.
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Replying to @csilverandgold
I’m not saying more progressive economics couldn’t help Dems pick up various seats in various places. But I really believe the best that’s going to get you is a 2008 scenario where Dems have a LOT of political power for 2 years and then a big backlash.
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I mean, actually yes, it was. Obamacare was too much of a government intrusion, and the deficit spending was bankrupting America. That’s what the Tea Party et al ran on. What they MEANT was “I hate that black guy” but what they ran on was anti-economic populism.
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Replying to @csilverandgold
As far as I’m concerned, Dems lost so bad in 2010 bc a) we relied heavily on a coalition that has lower midterm turnout, b) the president’s party ALWAYS loses in midterms, and c) racism. With a fig leaf of “stop spending money on poor people.”
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Nah, if that was the case turnout would have been down in 2012. Black turnout at least was up in ‘12 vs ‘08 (though I’d be interested in data by income). The issue with midterm turnout in 2010 wasn’t disappointment with Obama, it was the lack of Obama, lol.
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I think in this case the conventional explanation (people just don’t get as excited for midterms unless they’re political types or really energized for some reason—say, they are wildly dissatisfied with the direction of the country bc of the other party’s president) is correct.
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