I dunno about all that. In current elections basically every Dem is doing well, from socialists to centrists. It’s not like the Presidential election is the only one where people vote. And even then, what about McGovern? Mondale? Dukakis? They were all considered pretty liberal.
Nah, if that was the case turnout would have been down in 2012. Black turnout at least was up in ‘12 vs ‘08 (though I’d be interested in data by income). The issue with midterm turnout in 2010 wasn’t disappointment with Obama, it was the lack of Obama, lol.
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I think in this case the conventional explanation (people just don’t get as excited for midterms unless they’re political types or really energized for some reason—say, they are wildly dissatisfied with the direction of the country bc of the other party’s president) is correct.
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