I'm kinda surprised at how poorly Bernie is polling relative to Biden. Granted, it's so very early, and just wait until Biden actually gets in for real.
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Replying to @ForecasterEnten
I think some of Bernie 2016 was a proxy for people who didn't like clinton. Similarly some Clinton 2008 was a proxy for people who didn't like Obama (remember when people said she was the WWC choice?)
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Replying to @beardedcrank @ForecasterEnten
I wonder what would have happened to Bernie if Biden had run.
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Replying to @renonemontanez @ForecasterEnten
Interesting question. Could the eventual dem nominee have won with ~40%? Or which of the 3 drop out first? I could see Biden siphoning votes from both. OTOH, Biden has done very poorly in his multiple runs before. What are your thoughts?
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Replying to @beardedcrank @ForecasterEnten
I think the media would have tried to make it a Biden Clinton race, and Bernie would have come out of nowhere and win Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, while Hillary and Biden would have split SC.
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Super Tuesday would be interesting cuz Biden and Clinton would have split the south and Bernie would have won all the states he won plus MA. Delegate wise, Biden and Clinton would be slightly ahead, Bernie close behind.
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Bernie would win all the caucuses, and I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up winning more delegates in the end but losing the popular vote in a three person race.
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In bigger states Biden would siphon more from Hillary, in white states, Bernie. I think Bernie could have eekeed out wins in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York because of Biden siphoning from Hillary. I still think Hillary would win more votes and states.
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Biden was a sitting VP. Obama would have endorsed him pretty quick. I think Hillary would have won 42%, Bernie slightly behind, Biden the rest. Delegate wise, bernie may end up leading. But super delegates won't save him if he lost the popular vote.
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Scuttlebutt was that the Obama team was behind Hillary rather than Biden. I’m sure he wouldn’t have endorsed and would have tried to avoid stumping for either/any.
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