Also it looks like in the Senate you need a majority of the vote, not 50 votes So had those 4 dems not voted for it, I believe he still would have been confirmed 48-45 (assuming all yeas turned to nays)
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So actually, McConnell wouldn't have to flip a single vote. Even if every Dem who didn't vote or voted yea filpped to nay, it would be 48-48 with 4 (republican) abstentions, and Pence would break the tie for confirmation.
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