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After the Iowa cacucus I fiddled around with a NCSS spreadsheet of Iowa counties and discovered that the % of county who identified as Dutch in the census was the best negative predictor of Trump’s vote count, more important even than the % of bachelor’s degrees.
There aren’t many Dutch people in America. Their highest concentration by far (57.7%) is in ultra-religious Sioux County Iowa which also gave Trump his lowest shared of the vote (10.9%, his average was 24.3%). Others have noticed the same thing:https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-most-interesting-county-in-iowa-trumps-worst-county-and-his-best-county-in-one-place/ …
The Holland Michigan area went for Cruz over Trump in the 2016 primary as well
And Trump came in 3rd in Dutch Pella Iowa
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