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Trump's 2016 primary campaign (not the general) had an ethnic angle that went largely untalked about. It revealed a cultural split in the American Midwest between the descendants of Germanic immigrants who hated his boastfulness and the descendants of Old Americans who loved it.
After the Iowa cacucus I fiddled around with a NCSS spreadsheet of Iowa counties and discovered that the % of county who identified as Dutch in the census was the best negative predictor of Trump’s vote count, more important even than the % of bachelor’s degrees.
There aren’t many Dutch people in America. Their highest concentration by far (57.7%) is in ultra-religious Sioux County Iowa which also gave Trump his lowest shared of the vote (10.9%, his average was 24.3%). Others have noticed the same thing:https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-most-interesting-county-in-iowa-trumps-worst-county-and-his-best-county-in-one-place/ …
Dutch NW Iowa is famous for its religiosity and the people there functioned electorally sort of like Mormons, hating Trump for character reasons in the primaries but voting for him overwhelming in the general to save the Supreme Court (82.1%).https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/upshot/how-a-quiet-corner-of-iowa-packs-such-a-fierce-conservative-punch.html …
There’s one heavily Dutch place (26%) in Iowa not part of the NW cluster called Marion County and Trump also did anomalously bad there, which I think rules out the possibility that is an artefact of something else. The Dutch, no matter where they are in Iowa, hated Trump.
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