Kevin C. Smith, CFA

@crescatkevin

Global macro hedge fund manager. Tactical bear on US equities and business cycle. Connoisseur of precious metals stocks. China currency skeptic.

Denver, Colorado
Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2012.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    3. lis 2019.

    The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged for 36 years, but severe macro imbalances have been building up. Capital outflow pressure could lead to a break.

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  2. Time for the valuation insanity of the day. is in the fiercely competitive, high overhead IT services business, a massive grower...of SG&A! That's OK. It's a SaaS business. So let's give it a 25x EV-to-sales multiple! Never mind the profitability. Y2K all over again!

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 4 sata
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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    My op ed in ⁦⁩ - There now appear to be multiple nodes of sustained community transmission of outside China. It may be too late to avoid pandemic spread but we can still prevent outbreaks in U.S from turning into an American epidemic

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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Annual benchmark revisions that will accompany this Friday’s jobs report may flip gain in February 2019 negative; which would mean longest continuous streak in payroll gains already ended, as per

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    How long will effect the and can it help be a winner from and can actually help administration before the ?Global macro hedge fund manager kindly answered our questions – mjesto: EKOTÜRK

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    A top U.S. executive at SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund is leaving after expressing concerns about “issues” at the tech conglomerate.

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  8. 5. velj

    Combine the deterioration in durable goods that just flagged with the same in private fixed investment from our recent letter, and apparently it's the Duncan Leading Indicator with its strong correlation with past recessions: . ;

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    On the one side, something called the Duncan Leading Indicator. It takes GDP data and isolates the cyclical factors. Correlates pretty strongly w/recession. Turned negative in '19 (when curves collapsed) and has only become more so, including Q4.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    5. velj

    More from the Japanese Health Minister. They tested 31 people on the cruise ship and 10 came back positive, or one-third (yikes!). They were sent to the hospital. They are now going to test another 273 exhibiting symptoms. 3,500 others are left waiting for a resolution.

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  11. 5. velj

    Besides omitting today's record leverage, CAPE also puts more weight on the biggest companies with the biggest earnings. We prefer median measures to gauge today's breadth of overvaluation. Median EV to sales shows broad stocks today twice as overvalued as tech bubble peak!!!

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  12. 4. velj

    Nice. I have been lobbying to add this one to our table. This market is such a ridiculous mania. Bulls are out of the minds!

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    This chart blows my mind! The US PEG ratio is at an all-time high after almost doubling in the space of 12M to 1.8X – a +4 standard deviation move! US LT EPS growth has never been so expensive. Earnings need to stage a big comeback in ’20 to justify these record valuations.

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  14. 4. velj

    Too many electric utilities look like this one, : Record debt; Worsening negative free cash flow; and Historic EV-to-sales multiples Investors think they are haven stocks, bond alts. More likely they will be cutting dividends in the coming recession.

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  15. 3. velj

    The valuation lunacy chart of the day goes to . Is it really worth 10x EV to sales? The multiple expanded almost 3-fold since 2013 while revenues declined. Sales per share peaked in 2016.

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  16. 3. velj

    This market was historically stretched three years ago valuation-wise. Recently, it became the most stupid ever. January 17, 2020 was the likely peak of an idiotic speculative mania. My bet: Dip buyers today will get slaughtered. Selling panic ahead!

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    Lunch break in China! Man that morning session felt like years. Shanghai -8.13% Shenzhen -8.30% CSI 300 -8.17% ChiNext -6.56% Iron Ore -8% Copper -6.60% Steel -7.5% Rubber -9% Cotton -7% Aluminum -3.2% Palm Oil -7%

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    NEW research: Modelling study estimates potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China. All Lancet content is fully and freely available at our 2019-nCoV Resource Centre

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij

    This new modelling study estimates 75,800 individuals in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of January 25, 2020 - but authors caution that the true size of the epidemic remains unclear

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    The available evidence most strongly supports that the 2019-NCoV virus is a vaccine strain of coronavirus either accidentally released from a laboratory accident, or the Chinese were performing clinical studies of a Coronavirus…

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  21. 1. velj

    An abundance of valuation absurdities in this manic market. is just another example. EV to sales jumped from 12 to 36 times last year as revenue growth decelerated and negative free cash flow continued. 510 times 2020 expected earnings!

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