countyeconomics

@countyeconomics

Developing a social distancing rule of thumb, to see if it outperforms rational modelling

Joined January 2014
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  1. Retweeted
    Nov 26

    To make sure inflation doesn’t stay too high for too long, it’s likely we’ll need to raise interest rates gradually in the coming months, says Huw Pill. We’ll need to take a step-by-step approach to how much and when, based on proof of economic recovery.

    73 replies 32 retweets 75 likes
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  2. Nov 26

    Really interesting look at long term redistribution of wealth from reducing interest rates. Data from Eurozone. Would like to see replication for UK.

    A typical monetary policy easing redistributes from older to younger generations' the resulting asset price appreciation is harmful for households that accumulate housing & save for retirement, analysis
    1 retweet 1 like
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  3. Nov 25

    Great thread on the importance of institutions on growth (historically)

    🚨 Starting now – Prais lecture: State Capacity and Economic Growth: Cautionary Tales – Professor Sheilagh Ogilvie will use historical evidence to measure the usefulness of state capacity. Join us:
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    1 like
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  4. Nov 25

    Is it time to be open about pay? - via Useful for gender pay gap and efficiency

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  5. Retweeted
    Nov 23

    WHAT IS INFLATION? 💷 Inflation recently hit its highest rate for a decade, but how worried should we be? and talk us through what it all means on today's Daily Podcast. LISTEN HERE:

    2 retweets 4 likes
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  6. Retweeted
    Nov 22

    Strawberry farmer Simon Turner, 64: “It’s horrendous. Brexit has killed us. It’s going to destroy us. My business survived Covid, but I don’t think we’ll get over Brexit.” Last year he recruited 88 British staff. “Only two lasted over three hours."

    53 replies 802 retweets 1,354 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    Nov 22

    Last week I gave a speech about the need to recalibrate monetary policy. For those that didn't have the time to watch or read here is a 🧵on it. You can also watch it here or just read the slides.

    1 reply 17 retweets 41 likes
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  8. Nov 22

    Very good series

    Where did all the workers go?
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  9. Nov 19

    Wow. That does not look like stochastic error.

    The thing to note is that both bond and stock bearishness has been wrong since 2008. There’s not the assumed negative correlation between risk and non-risk asset prices.
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  10. Nov 18

    Really key point. Applies to housing too

    Supply chain problems actually refer to two very different issues: SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION: Electricity crisis shuts a factor in China, they can't make electronics. SUPPLY CHAIN NON-RESPONSIVENESS: People want to buy much more stuff, can only make more stuff).
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  11. Retweeted
    Nov 18

    Neat bit of retail game theory

    Lunchtime meal deals in the UK still universally £3 despite the soaring cost of absolutely everything. Every supermarket in the country waiting for one of them to blink and bump it to £4. The real cold war, this.
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    1 reply 9 retweets 15 likes
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  12. Retweeted
    Nov 18

    Something that is under appreciated is that supply chain managers finally have the attention of the C-suite, and supply chain managers have always hated long, cumbersome supply chains and “just in time” inventory management Expect a broad pivot to some “just in case” approaches

    "Ford entered a strategic agreement with US-based chip maker GlobalFoundriesto develop chips, a pact that could eventually lead to joint production in the US" So if giant chip consumers want onshore chip production, they can just... pay for it? Whoa.
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    3 retweets 5 likes
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  13. Nov 18

    Really impressive addition to the will robots replace labour discussion

    Our research team (, , Kevin A. Roberts, , and me) is excited to share our new working paper, “Capital Investment and Labor Demand” NBER link: Ungated: Summary thread below.
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  14. Retweeted
    Nov 17

    I asked John "Shadowstats" Williams to name something that's six times more expensive than 2000. This should be an easy question since his data shows the overall price level rising that much. But he was stumped.

    20 replies 56 retweets 312 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Nov 17

    That’s quite a steep rise for UK inflation Full story from

    3 replies 28 retweets 45 likes
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  16. Nov 17

    Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought via

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  17. Retweeted
    Nov 16

    Early studies of trade’s impacts on workers looked – and failed to find – large impacts on the gap between university-educated and other workers. But these early studies missed out on the effects of import competition on particular regions and particular industries. [2/7]

    1 reply 1 retweet
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  18. Retweeted
    Nov 16

    Online Event – What’s the impact of trade on inequality? | Inequality: the IFS Deaton Review. 17 November 2021 | 15:30 – 17:00

    6 retweets 14 likes
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  19. Retweeted
    Nov 15

    If Andrew Bailey wanted a strong set of jobs figures to persuade him to raise interest rates - he got it - payrolls up in Oct after furlough ended - big drop in unemployment - vacancies still at record levels - redundancies low

    4 replies 22 retweets 66 likes
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  20. Retweeted
    Nov 12

    Looking for a fun, hands-on way to help students practice shifting supply & demand? We’ve got you covered! Check out our variety of interactive practices here: Students will be curve-shifting pros in no time 😎

    7 retweets 15 likes
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