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coponder's profile
robin
robin
robin
@coponder

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robin

@coponder

*hands you a tangled ball of curiosity*

Bay Area, CA
Joined March 2016

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    1. Lulie‏ @reasonisfun Mar 17
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      Lulie Retweeted robin

      Bayesian rationalists think prediction is what thinking is. Critical rationalists deny many kinds of prediction are even possible, highlighting the growth of knowledge is unpredictable, and that most interesting things rest on this ever-evolving knowledge.https://twitter.com/coponder/status/1239808796647555072 …

      Lulie added,

      robin @coponder
      Replying to @coponder @visakanv @uberstuber
      if I had to summarize rationalists, it would be "people who want to get good at predicting the future" at various scales. like, rationality is supposed to be about seeing so clearly that you win at your goals. So it covers a lot areas - cognitive psychology, statistics, etc.
      5 replies 6 retweets 36 likes
    2. robin‏ @coponder Mar 17
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      Replying to @reasonisfun @bnielson01

      Tbh, I'm having some trouble parsing your statements to arrive at what your stance is. Are you critical of Bayesian rationalists here? Can you give an example of denying a kind of prediction as being possible? I mean this all friendly-like. :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. robin‏ @coponder Mar 17
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      Replying to @coponder @reasonisfun @bnielson01

      My understanding comes from predictive processing + friston free energy. My sense of the brain is it creates expectations of the world based on prev input, then compares that to new input. If the expectation and the input differ, you experience surprise (ie a prediction error).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. robin‏ @coponder Mar 17
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      Replying to @coponder @reasonisfun @bnielson01

      I know some Bayesian rationalists had a tendency to use S2 to crunch probabilities and make predictions verbally, but when I say rationalists want to get good at making predictions, I mean more than that. I'm curious to hear more about what you meant!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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      Replying to @coponder @reasonisfun

      Read @DavidDeutschOxf"s Fabric of Reality (or Beginning of Infinity should work) and he explains using Karl Poppers epistemology that science is not fundamentally about prediction and some things are not predictable.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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      Replying to @bnielson01 @coponder and

      I doubt most things are tractably predictable. Jeff Hawkins is on the wrong track when he guess the brain's main function is prediction.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      robin‏ @coponder Mar 17
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      Replying to @bnielson01 @reasonisfun @DavidDeutschOxf

      I'd love to hear more on what you think the brain's main function is! The thing is, what you (and Lulie and Deutsch) are saying is not incompatible with the brain being built on tiny prediction events - those prediction events don't have to be about *reality* though.

      8:02 PM - 17 Mar 2020
      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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          Replying to @coponder @reasonisfun @DavidDeutschOxf

          The brain probably does a lot of things and prediction may be one of them. But you didn't make that claim. You claimed something *much* stronger namely that rationality is about prediction. The fact that the brain happens to make predictions doesn't imply your claim on its own.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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          Replying to @bnielson01 @coponder and

          You are conjecturing that because the brain makes predictions and because the mind can be rational that it is the case that rationality arises from prediction. But explain why that is the case?

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. 4 more replies
        1. robin‏ @coponder Mar 17
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          Replying to @coponder @bnielson01 and

          They're predictions about future input to our bodies, which can be totally unrelated to reality. “If our perceptual systems evolved by natural selection, then the probability that we see reality as it actually is, in any way, is zero. Precisely zero,” said Donald Hoffman."

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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          Replying to @coponder @reasonisfun @DavidDeutschOxf

          I doubt the brain truly has a main function. I suspect the mind, the software running in the brain that we identify with, does. I believe it is a conjecturing engineer in how to solve problems.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Bruce Nielson‏ @bnielson01 Mar 17
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          Replying to @bnielson01 @coponder and

          What I mean is that the brain -- the hardware -- probably runs many functions not directly related to our rationality. Tiny predictions, like Hawkins thinks, is probably one of them. It's just not strongly related to our rational capacities. Separate interacting modules maybe.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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