My predictions and analysis of the democratic nominees. As always, remember that politics is about tribal affiliations rather than logic or policies.
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Biden: basically the candidate of the white boomer liberals, will be unable to pull any other group significantly. Low chance he wins the nomination. People pick him in polls due to name recognition If he does win, he can beat Trump, though, because he can match him on machismo.
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Buttigeig: You know how Democrats are the party of high and low vs. middle? This guy is 100% pure high. Perfectly groomed aristocrat, cosmopolitan gay from Harvard. The white woman's candidate. However, this group is fickle, switching between Buttigeig, Beto, Harris on a whim.
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Buttigeig won't win the nomination because blacks and Hispanics don't like him, and if he does, he can't beat Trump because 80% of the country will find him vaguely condescending.
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Beto: He is done for. Like Buttigeig but stupider.
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Harris: Stronger than Buttigeig because she can pull from high and low coalitions. In my opinion most likely to win the Dem nomination at this point. Won't beat Trump because she will remind everyone of Hillary empowered by SJW steroids.
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Bernie: I don't fully understand Bernie's coalition but I really don't think he will win the nomination. Too old and too weird, a known quantity and a one-trick pony. He could beat Trump if nominated though, because he can pull the white working class back to Democrats.
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Warren: I can't read her but I feel that she has a decent shot of getting the nomination. Won't beat Trump if nominated though. Wrong energy and also Pocahontas, lol.
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Yang: Candidate of autists. Favored candidate of men and those that are male-brained. Will steal away Bernie's base of smart young whites, and also appeals to blacks, hispanics, as well as working class whites. Potentially powerful coalition.
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DO NOT underestimate Yang. Most people still don't know about him, but those that do love him. He has the most fanatical supporters out of any candidate. That being said, his notable weakness is among boomers and young women. Most likely candidate to beat Trump if nominated.
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I do think Yang's narrative can pull Trump supporters as well. Ultimately it's going to come down to: who can do memetic warfare best. I get the sense that Yang may be capable in this way.
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