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connolly_s's profile
😀 Stephen Connolly
😀 Stephen Connolly
 😀 Stephen Connolly
@connolly_s

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 😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

#java #oss #maven #jenkinsci #apache #cloudbees I mostly tweet things I find funny or stuff about software engineering. Occasionally drift into Phys Chem stuff

Dublin, Ireland
javaadventure.blogspot.com
Joined July 2010

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    1.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      Now let’s make the sims easier. Say only 10 people that you interact with. The probability that the unprotected person gains from herd immunity is what we want to find out. If all 10 are vaccinated then the probability that none of them have the virus is 0.4^10=0.0001

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      That’s assuming they all were exposed enough times that they would be likely to catch it. So the herd protection is low... now at 75% efficacy 0.75^10=0.05 ie the unvaccinated person is 5% efficacy “for free” 90% effective 0.9^10=0.34, at 95%: 0.95^10=0.59

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      Now I am making a *lot* of approximations and assumptions, you need real modelling... BUT the comparative magnitudes are still relevant. At 40% the number of contacts that can result in infection is much more than at 75% because the effect is non-linear

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      This math is exactly why we want everyone vaccinated against measles (because it is very high efficacy => 2 doses gives 97% efficacy) but 97% is a long way from 40%

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      And non-linearity makes it even further. But having said all that, if any one person wants to reduce their risk of flu, 40% lower risk from the vaccine is better than 0% without... but that doesn’t make the same argument in favour of blanket mandatory in case of flu as measles

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      Similarly, *if your job has you exposed to increased risk of flu* then your job should offer you the flu vaccine in order to allow you to reduce your risk of catching the flu as a result of your work forcing you to have a higher exposure risk

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      (Not the same thing entirely as compulsory flu vaccinations yearly)

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      If your job involves you dealing with people who have a higher than the general population risk of complications from flu, then the 40% reduction of risk for those subset of people *may* warrant flu vaccination being required, but it would need careful modelling

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      Having excluded all those employees, we are now left with the people working in completely different buildings, seeing people who are not physically ill (and therefore not trying to avoid people who could make them sicker)... what is the gain in forcing those employees?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      I’m not against those people choosing to take the flu vaccine. I am in favour of mandatory measles vaccinations (because at 97% efficacy, herd immunity is strong)... but making the flu vaccine mandatory and compulsory or you lose your job... I don’t see it relevant for all jobs

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
       😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

      Medical doctors, nurses, hospital workers, GP clinic staff... yeah you can convince me for them... but the accountant who works in a completely different building and never goes near the hospital nor actually meets the doctors/nurses/etc... 🤔 I don’t see grounds for dismissal

      3:42 PM - 2 May 2019
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

          Not at 40% efficacy anyway... now if the infection rate of influenza was much lower than its 75%, then the 40% wouldn’t be as bad, and you’d have a bigger window for herd immunity... and perhaps then a case for mandatory flu vaccinations might start to make sense...

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

          But we live in a world where you are infectious for 3-4 days, 75% of (unvaccinated) people exposed to you in that time will likely catch the flu from you (would be 45% of vaccinated people) so the virus passes like Mexican waves through the population

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. JoeWV‏ @JOEWV 2 May 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @Hotdamnitsemily and

          Anybody who deliberately doesn’t get a flu vaccine is a dumbass regardless of where they work.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 2 May 2019
          Replying to @JOEWV @Hotdamnitsemily and

          Only 40% effective, and hopefully you’d get it at least 50 times (if you get it 100 times then it likely caused you no harm) so the cumulative risk goes up

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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