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connolly_s's profile
😀 Stephen Connolly
😀 Stephen Connolly
 😀 Stephen Connolly
@connolly_s

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 😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

#java #oss #maven #jenkinsci #apache #cloudbees I mostly tweet things I find funny or stuff about software engineering. Occasionally drift into Phys Chem stuff

Dublin, Ireland
javaadventure.blogspot.com
Joined July 2010

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    1. Steve Holden‏ @holdenweb 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @gorskon

      And the probability of being exposed to measles increases non-linearly as the proportion of those vaccinated goes down. We need herd immunity to protect those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    2.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @holdenweb @gorskon

      Of course... but if *everyone else* vaccinated their kids, and the vaccine is 100% effective then (and only then) it is less risk to not vaccinate your one kid (as long as everyone else keeps vaccinating)... the problem with that selfish attitude is...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... there are some people who cannot be vaccinated (ie we know up front that the vaccines would cause them harm) those people need to be the only people not vaccinated (as they usually have a compromised immune system anyway)... by being selfish you harm them...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... the maths and behaviour of long established vaccines is sound, eg measles... but the problem is for some other vaccines the maths is less clear-cut. Eg what about making the flu vaccine mandatory? It’s only 40% effective, so we’ll not majorly reduce flu incidents...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... what’s the risk profile look like for a 40% effective vaccine? Remember the conditional probabilities kick in... if P1 = riskOfDeathFromFlu, P2 = riskOfDeathFromVac; If you vac: 0.6P1 + P2.... compared with P1 without. That’s just “immediate” death... what about late onset?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    6.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      How do we factor in risk of debilitating side-effects. There is alarm that the flu vaccine may raise the risk of Dementia... obviously *years* later... and proof near impossible without a lot of twin studies... should we allow people to opt out of the flu vaccine?

      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. JT  🐍  ☁️‏ @ThreeFDDI 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      Weird, I've never come across an anti-vaxxer that worked in technology. Usually IT people are smarter than that... even the dumb ones.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    8.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @ThreeFDDI @holdenweb @gorskon

      I’m not anti-vacation... but I do object to mandatory flu vaccinations... but then I’m a chemist first and worked for multiple pharma companies... plus worked with clinical trials approvals, etc... so I might have a leas black&white view than you

      4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

      Also I wasn’t saying which was the higher risk, rather asking how one should evaluate that risk. The original point of the flu vaccine was to reduce risk for “at risk” groups... but lots more money to be made giving it to everyone (even if only 40% effective)

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

      Now compare and contrast with the measles vaccine (which is *very* effective) add in that measles used to kill a lot (just poorer diagnoses lead to lack of full attribution, and survivorship bias) and you say “measles vaccine is on balance something society should enforce”

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
       😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

      But if you want to stick to “all vaccines good” your choice... but whether any specific vaccine should be mandatory or not (subject to “at risk” groups) should depend on the numbers. Remember vaccines *have* long term effects, so to think that immunity is the only one is fallacy

      6:25 AM - 30 Apr 2019
      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @JensJenson1 @ThreeFDDI and

          Yep. For most (ie not the flu vaccine) I think vaccines are a “what kind of muppets are you rejecting it” noddy choice... but at 40% effectiveness I think the flu vaccine should be personal choice

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Show replies
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        2. Graeme Leggett‏ @GrumFromNorwich 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

          "all vaccines good" That looks a bit like strawmanning from here. There is also getting into 'the perfect is the enemy of the good' territory.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @GrumFromNorwich @ThreeFDDI and

          I’m just saying that the flu vaccine has not been around anywhere near as long as measles vaccine... we don’t know the long term effects (and probably cannot know in the case of the flu vaccine)

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. StJohntheSkeptic‏ @ColorMeDoubtful 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

          Other than causing idiots like you to spout bullshit, vaccines have NO other long term effect. They work. They save lives. You are literally killing kids with this bullshit.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Chris Gentry‏ @CGentPharm 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @ThreeFDDI and

          Right?? Like didn't these "scientists" see the evidence in the Brady Bunch episode where they all had fun with measles???

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @CGentPharm @ThreeFDDI and

          Let me try again. I am only objecting to the annual flu vaccine being mandatory and a condition of employment. Measles vaccine and that crazy shit going down in CA because of people opting out of a well established one-time vaccination is a totally different case.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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