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connolly_s's profile
😀 Stephen Connolly
😀 Stephen Connolly
 😀 Stephen Connolly
@connolly_s

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 😀 Stephen Connolly

@connolly_s

#java #oss #maven #jenkinsci #apache #cloudbees I mostly tweet things I find funny or stuff about software engineering. Occasionally drift into Phys Chem stuff

Dublin, Ireland
javaadventure.blogspot.com
Joined July 2010

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    1. David Gorski, MD, PhD‏Verified account @gorskon 29 Apr 2019

      Funny how antivaccine activists dismiss the possibility of death due to measles (~1 in 1,000) as being of little or no consequence; yet, a one in a million chance of severe reactions to a vaccine is completely unacceptable to them.

      61 replies 579 retweets 1,625 likes
    2.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @gorskon @holdenweb

      Hmmm I agree with where you are coming from, but that’s a false argument. Everyone has to be exposed to the vaccine risk, but not everyone is exposed to measles... need to multiply to 1/1000 by the probability of being exposed to measles... and if everyone *else* is vaccinated...

      3 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Steve Holden‏ @holdenweb 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @gorskon

      And the probability of being exposed to measles increases non-linearly as the proportion of those vaccinated goes down. We need herd immunity to protect those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    4.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @holdenweb @gorskon

      Of course... but if *everyone else* vaccinated their kids, and the vaccine is 100% effective then (and only then) it is less risk to not vaccinate your one kid (as long as everyone else keeps vaccinating)... the problem with that selfish attitude is...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... there are some people who cannot be vaccinated (ie we know up front that the vaccines would cause them harm) those people need to be the only people not vaccinated (as they usually have a compromised immune system anyway)... by being selfish you harm them...

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    6.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... the maths and behaviour of long established vaccines is sound, eg measles... but the problem is for some other vaccines the maths is less clear-cut. Eg what about making the flu vaccine mandatory? It’s only 40% effective, so we’ll not majorly reduce flu incidents...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      ... what’s the risk profile look like for a 40% effective vaccine? Remember the conditional probabilities kick in... if P1 = riskOfDeathFromFlu, P2 = riskOfDeathFromVac; If you vac: 0.6P1 + P2.... compared with P1 without. That’s just “immediate” death... what about late onset?

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
       😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
      Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

      How do we factor in risk of debilitating side-effects. There is alarm that the flu vaccine may raise the risk of Dementia... obviously *years* later... and proof near impossible without a lot of twin studies... should we allow people to opt out of the flu vaccine?

      5:17 AM - 30 Apr 2019
      4 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. JT  🐍  ☁️‏ @ThreeFDDI 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

          Weird, I've never come across an anti-vaxxer that worked in technology. Usually IT people are smarter than that... even the dumb ones.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @ThreeFDDI @holdenweb @gorskon

          I’m not anti-vacation... but I do object to mandatory flu vaccinations... but then I’m a chemist first and worked for multiple pharma companies... plus worked with clinical trials approvals, etc... so I might have a leas black&white view than you

          4 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Jerry Alexandratos  🇺🇸‏ @JNAlexandratos 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

          Citation very badly needed, from a peer-reviewed journal. Do be a dear and check that it wasn't from one of those fringe anti-vax groups who later had to retract it. Thanks.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. StJohntheSkeptic‏ @ColorMeDoubtful 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

          You don't, because there aren't any. Your bullshit is killing people.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  😀 Stephen Connolly‏ @connolly_s 30 Apr 2019
          Replying to @ColorMeDoubtful @holdenweb @gorskon

          Me not taking the flu vaccine every year is really killing people? Especially if I am responsible and do not expose others in the event of having the flu? Check yourself. My gripe is with proposed *mandatory* annual flu vaccinations *as a condition of continued employment*

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Stephen M. Thomas‏ @stmithomas 1 May 2019
          Replying to @connolly_s @holdenweb @gorskon

          That’s what is known in scientific circles as “unadulterated bullshit.”

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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