The comparison number I saw was 1.5 for the Flu!
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2.28 is the best number I could find (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext …).
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Worse than that. It can take close to 4 weeks for some people to show symptoms and there isn't enough data to fully evaluate the distribution.
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Five days avg
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Did you see the estimates from Los Alamos? https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1 … Still in peer review, so grain of salt.
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With six weeks of undetected spread, how many have already been infected?
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A more accurate estimate can be produced using SIR models rather than just simple exponential growth. Especially over long time horizons.
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But globally more people are recovering than being infected so the number of active cases is actually falling.
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