I think that "strong contracts empower distributed ownership". Thus, an explicit error budget -- with e.g. common visibility of current value -- empowers teams to make the right decisions and have clear expectations what happens when you miss your SLA.
I have hope that serverless can deliver a similar improvement, over a similar time-frame. Hopefully in 2030, 4-5 nines is very low effort even for a boutique one or two person team full of naivety.
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ah, sigh, I'm kind of a serverless skeptic. I want to believe! But not clear how it adds nines (point me to resources if you have them!). For your potential two hour outages, maybe ask *why* developers want them and why the automated tooling hasn't de-risked their changes?
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I suspect (core?) AWS and its customers operate with pretty different levels of maturity, chaos, resourcing, ...
End of conversation
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