Experienced tallymen also have sophisticated models in Excel spreadsheets that use this to forecast how many "2" , "3" votes and so on the candidates will get, and make projections for TV, Radio and so on to use as news.
I've never seen the tie-breaker (drawing a lot) happen! The other source of non-determinism, sampling the surplus, turns out not to matter much in my experience. I've seen recounts do a full count and distribute instead, as they do in NI.
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Huh. I didn’t think they ever did a full counts and distribution. Seems mad that we don’t always do it (would be interested if there was any research into the difference it made)
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I think it became harder for returning officers not to do it after NI set the precedent ... people want fairness. What the laws proscribe exactly has always been subject to discretion. Almost every election there are nail-biter last-seats that it makes some difference for.
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