Caitlin Rivers

@cmyeaton

Assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Outbreak science + epidemiology + health security. ELBI alum.

Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2012.
19 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    For me on 2019-nCoV, 2 growing concerns, (1) severe cases evolving wk 2 of illness suggests early ARDS-mitigation strategies appropriate (2) still, influenza risk management improvement needed, 2019-nCoV respiratory season exacerbator, exploiting same vulnerabilities

    1 reply 6 proslijeđenih tweetova 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj
    Odgovor korisniku/ci

    It needs a UK-lead but international collaboration will be considered here:

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    3. velj

    So, that paper we all reported on showing transmission of from an “asymptomatic case”? Well, it turns out the woman did have symptoms. Here’s what we know so far:

    8 replies 90 proslijeđenih tweetova 119 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  4. 3. velj

    I am an academic myself now, but fortunately I am funded through my work with . So please don’t mistake this as self-serving. I am using this privilege to highlight the difficult position of the scientists who are too humble to do so themselves. 5/5

    5 replies 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 82 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  5. 3. velj

    I’ve written with colleagues before about the importance of investing in a functional modeling capability before the outbreak begins. nCoV should underscore the necessity of that 4/

    22 proslijeđena tweeta 86 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  6. 3. velj

    We can’t continue to manage the scientific response to outbreaks like this. It isn’t sustainable. We need super rapid funding mechanisms, or even sustainment $ to focus on outbreak science. 3/

    1 reply 15 proslijeđenih tweetova 110 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  7. 3. velj

    If you are not familiar with academia, that might sound underwhelming. But running a lab is a lot like running a business. There are employees to support and expenses to pay. And all of the regular work - the research they are actually paid to do - still needs to get done. 2/

    1 reply 8 proslijeđenih tweetova 67 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  8. 3. velj

    Most of the modelers responding to nCoV are doing so pro bono. There is no funding for this work. Every outbreak they drop the work they are funded to do and volunteer their expertise to help us all to understand what is happening and how to respond. 1/

    12 replies 157 proslijeđenih tweetova 518 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    Assessing the extent of mild infections is tricky during early stages of an outbreak, when testing and medical capacity is strained; it requires screening of appropriate populations. Useful methods developed in 2009 influenza epidemic; there was considerable initial uncertainty.

    More here, focusing on the 2009 influenza pandemic
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    1 reply 11 proslijeđenih tweetova 24 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Please.

    of asks: ”Please stop calling it WuhanCoronavirus. As said: . Virus interim name is "2019-nCoV". It's not perfect, but ...”
    1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  11. 3. velj

    Hubei Province has announced it will be forcibly quarantining close contacts.

    12 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  12. 2. velj

    Our thoughts

    This thread regards US policies and actions intended to prevent spread of nCoV into the US and to prepare to respond to a nCoV epidemic within the US. 1/x
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    1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  13. 2. velj

    *source:

    1 proslijeđeni tweet 1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  14. 2. velj

    Not overly worried bc 1) discharge criteria sms focused on isolation not clinical recovery (requires 3d afebrile, 2 PCR neg 1d apart*) & 2) we know frm past outbreaks that bad news travels faster than good. Discharges often aren't reported as fastidiously. But ofc I'm speculating

    Odgovor korisniku/ci @cmyeaton
    does it worry you that the number of deaths is approximately equal to the number recovered? that seems like an ominous stat to me--with the caveat of course that we haven't had enough time pass to be sure if that will hold.
    12 proslijeđenih tweetova 23 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    I completely agree with the decision of the Govt. not to ban travel to China As said travel restrictions cause more harm than good by hindering info-sharing for public health action, medical supply chains etc & have no obvious benefit

    46 replies 86 proslijeđenih tweetova 221 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  16. 1. velj

    Interesting report out of Japan. 210 nationals evacuated from Wuhan were tested; 2 were PCR+ but asymptomatic. No relevant contact hx.

    1 reply 13 proslijeđenih tweetova 29 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    More here, focusing on the 2009 influenza pandemic

    1 reply 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    1. velj

    A reminder about the challenges of estimating the case fatality rate of an infection in real-time - because we don’t yet know the final outcome of all the cases who are currently ill, estimates can be heavily biased (example shown below for Ebola)

    5 replies 24 proslijeđena tweeta 71 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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  19. 1. velj

    Update: We are still in the expansion period. Crude CFR is dropping because case counts are growing faster than outcomes are recorded. We hope and anticipate that the true CFR is low, but we cannot estimate that by simply dividing deaths/cases.

    About mortality rate: It is very difficult to estimate CFR early in an outbreak. There is ascertainment bias in early cases, pushing up the observable CFR. Later on, during the expansion period, the majority of cases do not have an outcome recorded yet, pushing down the CFR.
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    5 replies 42 proslijeđena tweeta 100 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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  20. 1. velj

    and we also un-paywalled relevant articles in our journal, Health Security.

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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@cmyeaton još nije objavio nijedan Tweet.

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