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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori 25 Jan 2018

      "We did thing X, and it worked 17% of the time." Medical industry: "The evidence that X works is overwhelming!" Every other industry: "That didn't work at all, X is probably only tangentially related to the problem, let's try something else."

      2 replies 4 retweets 38 likes
      Show this thread
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori 25 Jan 2018

      Like, sane people think of a 17% success rate as an 83% failure rate and see it as a huge red flag that you aren't doing the right thing and don't understand the problem properly.

      4:55 PM - 25 Jan 2018
      • 22 Likes
      • ES Barry Gaffey Thiago de Andrade Þórður Águst Omid Ghavami Zeitooni Mahdi Jeddi babel Jeremy Johnson 🍡✏️ Shayan Aminnjad
      6 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ryan Ries‏ @JosephRyanRies 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Blood letting probably had a 17% success rate...

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. TooManyProgrammers‏ @8MadStrings 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @JosephRyanRies @cmuratori

          doing nothing, sometimes has a 17% success rate.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. Hamish Todd  🚂Paris/Brussels/Amsterdam Nov, HMU‏ @hamish_todd 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Yuh, we don't understand the problem. We are trying! But obv it's nothing like engineering, biology is complicated. But making judgements on the limited information you have can be a moral necessity.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Hamish Todd  🚂Paris/Brussels/Amsterdam Nov, HMU‏ @hamish_todd 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          The redness of the flag is not completely unacknowledged, eg http://www.cell.com/cancer-cell/abstract/S1535-6108(02)00133-2 …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Hamish Todd  🚂Paris/Brussels/Amsterdam Nov, HMU‏ @hamish_todd 29 Jan 2018
          Replying to @hamish_todd @cmuratori

          :P https://xkcd.com/1831/ 

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Michael Cameron‏ @chr0n0kun 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          yeah but when 17% success is the best you've got, it's better than 0%

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Saúl González D.‏ @esaulgd 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @chr0n0kun @cmuratori

          Exactly. I think context here matters a lot. Also, it's not like they consider the problem solved at 17%. They just want some lives to be saved while they work on upping that ratio.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jake Federico‏ @katanadash 25 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Spoken like someone who works on highly deterministic, non-chaotic systems for a living...

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Chris Kohnert‏ @chriskohnert 27 Jan 2018
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Like fixing a bug that accounts for only 17% of your crash reports? Wasted effort, surely. ;)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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