@InnuendoStudios As someone who has done extensively analysis of KickStarter campaigns, I'm not sure you have your facts right :) But OK.
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Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios The phrase "most Kickstarter campaigns" is not meaningful. You have to look at other predictors _per campaign_.2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
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Replying to @InnuendoStudios
@InnuendoStudios At the moment, social media + money series still fails to predict about 1 in 4 KickStarters: http://vincent.etter.io/publications/etter2013cosn.pdf …1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios Which is a fair bit better than a random guess, but not that much :)1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios So the conventional wisdom of "well we have X percent of our funding by time Y" is actually still wrong fairly often.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios The failure distributions are also not necessary constant across categories (see http://sidekick.epfl.ch/stats ).1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios So, what we _do_ know is that if you take out the "notch spike", the KickStarter fails: http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/1569763410/innuendo-studios/#chart-daily …1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios Would people have rallied successfully at the end if he had _not_ tweeted it and there hadn't been that $5k+? Maybe!1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @cmuratori
@InnuendoStudios But I was definitely biting my nails until that happened :)1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
@InnuendoStudios So I still choose to thank him profusely because data-wise, without him I don't think it was a sure thing by my read.
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