I don't think Paul Krugman actually understands probability and statistics. Like, at all: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/math-is-hard/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto …
@nothings Obviously it depends on poll failure rate, which he doesn't actually provide, so I assume he didn't even do that math.
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@cmuratori@nothings And tangentially, that is actually a statistic that seems hard to come by (poll failure rate by distance to election).Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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