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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Catalin Balan‏ @laserbeam333 Nov 6
      Replying to @cmuratori @Jonathan_Blow

      Don't you need both? I mean... not the "complain" part, but to both adjust lifestyles to use fewer resources, AND work on tech? It's really hard to justify "tech will solve this eventually" when humanity pumps more CO2 year over year due to increasing demand.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Nov 6
      Replying to @laserbeam333 @Jonathan_Blow

      I mean, the answer is obviously no. Unless the endgame for humans is to have strict population limits, then it doesn't _ever_ matter what you do to your lifestyle. Our population will just grow to consume the same amount of resources again.

      4 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Nov 6
      Replying to @cmuratori @laserbeam333 @Jonathan_Blow

      So although everyone has their ridiculous nonsense ideas, the truth is, unless you decide that humanity is going to implement population control, our future is space travel and technology. Lifestyle modification as an idea is just a failure to understand exponentiation.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    4. Andrew J. Bromage‏ @deguerre Nov 6
      Replying to @cmuratori @laserbeam333 @Jonathan_Blow

      The fertility rate of most developed countries is below 2 births per woman and has been for decades. If it weren't for immigration, population would shrink. "Population control" is improving health and education. Let Hans Rosling explain.https://youtu.be/BkSO9pOVpRM 

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Andrew J. Bromage‏ @deguerre Nov 6
      Replying to @deguerre @cmuratori and

      Also worth looking at the data by country. Remember, birth rate of 2 is basically zero population growth. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori 10h10 hours ago
      Replying to @deguerre @laserbeam333 @Jonathan_Blow

      I strongly disagree with all of this and furthermore think it is overwhelmingly obvious why, but I'm not sure how to explain it in Twitter. The easiest way to say it is that humans automatically expand to their capability horizon.

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    7. Feldspar‏ @longest_march 6h6 hours ago
      Replying to @cmuratori @deguerre and

      The capability to support humans is increased by a greater % of people working more productively, which is the exact thing that is decreasing fertility. So unless lifestyles change back to a smaller working percentage, we should expect population growth to continue to slow down.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Andrew J. Bromage‏ @deguerre 5h5 hours ago
      Replying to @longest_march @cmuratori and

      Exactly this. One thing to note is that there are possible ways out. Japan's population was shrinking for a decade before the pandemic, and this is one key reason why they are strategically investing in robotics.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori 5h5 hours ago
      Replying to @deguerre @longest_march and

      But this is obviously not true. If it were, we would have seen decreasing world population over time in general, because the entire history of humans has been more productive humans. Literally every year, since our inception?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Bret Hudson‏ @BretHudson 5h5 hours ago
      Replying to @cmuratori @deguerre and

      By productive, do we mean increasingly efficient or simply just spending more time being "productive" aka working?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori 5h5 hours ago
      Replying to @BretHudson @deguerre and

      The former (I assumed). Perhaps they didn't mean that though.

      2:53 PM - 7 Nov 2021
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Feldspar‏ @longest_march 5h5 hours ago
          Replying to @cmuratori @BretHudson and

          It's about the percentage of people who work full time (which has pretty recently started to increase massively) and the kind of work (year round sitting in an office rather than working intensely for a few months during harvest or w/e.) That's my understanding anyway.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Andrew J. Bromage‏ @deguerre 4h4 hours ago
          Replying to @longest_march @cmuratori and

          Just to be clear, the theory isn't that in rich and middle income countries, people MUST work to sustain society and this limits the birth rate. It's that people, and women in particular, CAN do things other than merely reproduce. (Oh, and modern contraception helps a lot.)

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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