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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 12

      New working paper providing data to support what certainly has seemed to be true for the past few decades: that people have very little idea how much wealth inequality there actually is, or how relatively wealthy they themselves are. https://www.nber.org/papers/w21174 pic.twitter.com/pEvkq5yrrN

      2 replies 4 retweets 35 likes
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      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 12

      Most troublesome, in many places people incorrectly think poverty is trending in the _opposite_ direction as it actually is. The implications of this for sustaining actual poverty-reducing government policies seem dire :(pic.twitter.com/RjGIGubdOi

      2:22 PM - 12 Oct 2021
      • 3 Retweets
      • 21 Likes
      • Tanner Davies AMUSEMENT VIS MidgetViking Guy Zerker ∆ 5'2”, two measurements Karsten Eger BlueGhost 🌐 Randy Cavanagh
      8 replies 3 retweets 21 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ perceive me‏ @Pope_Meat Oct 12
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Thank you! Too often we're inundated with propaganda talking about how we're winning the war on poverty, but when looked closer it's more often goal post shifting on paper, rather than any meaningful progress towards bringing people up. Although pointing this out isn't popular.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 12
          Replying to @Pope_Meat

          Actually no, the paper does not say that at all. What the paper says is that people in general (possibly including you?) do not actually have an accurate picture of absolute levels of poverty or their derivatives.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Jonas‏ @closecall30 Oct 12
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Looks more like noise than a trend to me

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 12
          Replying to @closecall30

          The "educated populace" r value would be positive 1. The observed r value is _negative_ .23. That is not "noise", that is a severe problem. Pure noise would be terrible for policy, and that would be 0.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jim Kjellin‏ @JimKjellin Oct 12
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Hans Rosling's (RIP) gapminder made very easy access videos and presentations in this field, highly recommend watching them for a fact based no bullshit view

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Johnathon Selstad‏ @makeshifted Oct 12
          Replying to @cmuratori

          The beginning and ending years here are suspicious... Could a transient factor (like the 2008 recession (and associated hysteria)) have uniquely influenced people's perceptions here?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 12
          Replying to @makeshifted

          It's possible, although the paper in general is more of a broad survey, so that's probably pigeonholed because the particular data they could get on those perceptions was only taken for those years.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Jacob Christian Munch-Andersen‏ @NoHatCoder Oct 12
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Note that this measurement of poverty assumes that median income is a stable point of reference. If median income drops, and bottom income drops a little less, the graph will say fewer poor people, while the reality is the opposite.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Oct 13
          Replying to @NoHatCoder

          I haven't worked through the whole paper yet so I can't say if there is any funny business yet (such as that).

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. BiPiTi‏ @BiPiTi6 Oct 13
          Replying to @cmuratori

          I think a lot of that perception goes beyond simple "money in/money out". Especially for Germany, worker protection rollbacks and precarious jobs have increased dramatically. Even if you made the same amount of money, you'd certainly feel a lot poorer if the uncertainty increased

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. BiPiTi‏ @BiPiTi6 Oct 13
          Replying to @BiPiTi6 @cmuratori

          Having a more dynamic job market is economically mostly a plus. Same goes for having lots of people moving as soon as economic opportunities shift. But many people feel significantly worse about the situation, especially with the population being very economically conservative.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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