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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Todd Jones  🦊‏ @toddrjones Aug 16

      Covid cases vs. Covid shots per person, where each dot is a state. By pure coincidence, states with fewer vaccinations per person tend to have more cases.pic.twitter.com/IGg97JVeoF

      5 replies 5 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Todd Jones  🦊‏ @toddrjones Aug 16

      Covid cases vs. Covid shots per person By pure coincidence, states with fewer vaccinations per person tend to have more cases.pic.twitter.com/kBNzBwqMSm

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
      Replying to @toddrjones

      I don't know if this is useful input of not, but one of the reasons programmers such as myself don't take a lot of economic analysis seriously is because we work with large volumes of complex data daily, and we would never take a chart like this as indicating something.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
      Replying to @cmuratori @toddrjones

      What that resembles to me is a chart where you have isolated a relatively unimportant variable. If I had that outcome on a dataset, I would assume that I needed to change my analysis to find out what was really going on.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Todd Jones  🦊‏ @toddrjones Aug 16
      Replying to @cmuratori

      Out of curiosity, if shots per person is a relatively unimportant variable, what is an important variable in this context?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
      Replying to @toddrjones

      I have no idea, I don't study this problem. But looking at a chart with ~50 data points with that kind of spread and a very low-slope trend, I would just assume that whatever I graphed was merely a weak correlate to whatever the real important variables were.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
      Replying to @cmuratori @toddrjones

      Since there are so many variables here (density, level of interaction, mask compliance, "superspreaders", transit type, etc.), and many of them could correlate with whether or not people are interested in getting vaccinated, I would dig much deeper before concluding anything.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Todd Jones  🦊‏ @toddrjones Aug 16
      Replying to @cmuratori

      Point taken. I think an appropriate thing to say is that this is suggestive evidence that vaccines work, though this graph in and of itself does not establish the causal link.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
      Replying to @toddrjones

      I mean, I suppose, but if you wanted to demonstrate that with a graph, would the graph be number of cases in vaccinated people vs. number of cases in unvaccinated people? If the goal is to demonstrate that vaccines work, there are much better graphs than this one.

      2:28 PM - 16 Aug 2021
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
          Replying to @cmuratori @toddrjones

          If the goal, on the other hand, was to demonstrate that vaccination helps limit cases in _unvaccinated_ people, then I return to my original point: it seems like there are much more important variables at play.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Todd Jones  🦊‏ @toddrjones Aug 16
          Replying to @cmuratori

          Ultimately, the best graph to show they work is a graph from a randomized control trial.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 16
          Replying to @toddrjones

          And we already know that data very well, since the Phase 3 results of the mRNA vaccines were conclusive and were not low-sample-count, high-noise datasets like the one in this graph.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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