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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

      [1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.

      18 replies 76 retweets 265 likes
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    2. MQ Tran‏ @tranmq Aug 15
      Replying to @cmuratori

      How did you come up with the p^xn formula and confirm its correctness? Is this specifically applied to the Twitter’s codebase or for any codebase for example aerospace or mission critical softwares?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 15
      Replying to @tranmq

      I did not "come up with" the formula - it is the only formula that can be applied given the assumption stated in the first clause of the tweet ("If we take... as a given probability p").

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 15
      Replying to @cmuratori @tranmq

      If you have two probabilities (p and q), and you want to know if both will happen, you multiply them together. So "p*q" is the chance that _both_ p and q will happen.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 15
      Replying to @cmuratori @tranmq

      Ergo, if you have n tools, each with a probability of working p, then it is p*p*p*...*p, with n p's. Which is just p^n.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 15
      Replying to @cmuratori @tranmq

      Then you just repeat for the number of years, x. That's all the formula is.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 15
      Replying to @cmuratori @tranmq

      (In more sophisticated analyses, you would start looking at things like the dependency of p on q or vice versa, etc. This formula takes the assumption as a given, so it does not consider things like "p happening makes q more likely" or anything like that.)

      5:01 PM - 15 Aug 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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