[1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.
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Then you just repeat for the number of years, x. That's all the formula is.
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(In more sophisticated analyses, you would start looking at things like the dependency of p on q or vice versa, etc. This formula takes the assumption as a given, so it does not consider things like "p happening makes q more likely" or anything like that.)
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