[1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.
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That's an interesting point. I was thinking more along the lines of "code that tends to survive one tool chain change will be more likely to survive the next". Breaking behaviour usually happens on the margins of functionality.
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(not as applicable when you start talking about *dependencies*, although I feel like freezing dependency versions is coon best practice, right?)
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