[1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.
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So at the point where you want to accurately model software failure, you have to make a much more complicated model, that is true.
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So on the one hand, lots of software just sits dormant and keeps working year after year without bothering anyone. On the other hand, I intuitively and experientially agree with you that accumulating dependencies is bad for stability. Not sure about the math like that though.
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