[1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.
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While I agree with the general "long tail" issue you're describing, I don't think I agree that this behavior doesn't matter. It absolutely does. If most tools fail in the first month vs if it fails with uniform probability over ten years, makes a huge difference.
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In the former case, you can try something and if it doesn't work out you've only lost a month's worth of stuff built on top of it. In the latter, you could have years worth of stuff built on top.
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