[1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.
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[12/*] As for speculation, I wonder, at least in part, if this answers the questions me and other people like me have, which is how do companies like Twitter employ thousands of developers while seemingly producing almost no additional software or improvements?
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[13/*] Well, if you assume that Twitter's collective codebase is a 1000+ dependency nightmare, as I assume it probably is, then the math kind of tells us the answer: the vast, vast majority of their time will have to be spent simply keeping their existing code working.
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preach
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Just today I was scrolling through github for a simple implementation of RPC for C++, but found myself skipping so many because they were unmaintained for a couple years and I didn't want to deal with any potential issues with their tools or dependencies.
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The irony is that these tools and dependencies that are supposed to make us more productive are doing the exact opposite. We spend so much time trying to build stuff these days like wtf wasn't that the problem we were trying to solve with these things??
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Assuming you're fine with having a job where you fix broken builds, update dependencies and whatnot half the time..
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Ironically, I often see the justification for this style of work to be, "We need to use well-known tool X because it will make the project more maintainable. What if the lead dev gets hit by a bus?" Well, it would build in a year if you didn't use any of those tools!
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I have feelings about this. They are too strong and numerous to sort through, so I will let it manifest as anger at web developers.
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Totally fair, I will not stand in your way.
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Isn't the problem "gotta get latest" culture and not the number of dependencies? If you lock you dependencies (esp, submit them to your SCM, but tags work too), how do they break your builds?
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Sometimes you find a bug, and fix it in your own fork instead of getting latest with all the other change, right? But if your dependencies are closed source then you have fewer options.
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