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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

      [1/*] If we take the chance that a tool (compiler, linker, batch, whatever) remains working for a particular codebase after one year as a given probability p, then the chance that build remains working after x years is p^xn, where n is the number of tools used in the build.

      18 replies 76 retweets 265 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

      [2/*] That's "just math". Even if we assume a 99% chance that a tool still works on the codebase after a year (an extreme rarity these days!), that graph looks like this:pic.twitter.com/Z0mtFFoJM3

      2 replies 3 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

      [3/*] With just one tool, the build has an over 95% chance of working after five year. With ten tools, it has only a 60% chance! And that's with every tool having a _99%_ chance of remaining working (meaning no breaking changes to the tool that affect the build in question).

      1 reply 1 retweet 42 likes
      Show this thread
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

      [4/*] If we assume a still probably favorable given today's environment, but slightly lower p of 90%, the graph now looks like this:pic.twitter.com/rGIdVncsEB

      2:51 PM - 13 Aug 2021
      • 38 Likes
      • 👁👅👁 Gordon Brander Matias Fernandez Tarjei Skjærset Phage Akhil Kumar P_Hominid AMUSEMENT VIS Ivan Braidi
      1 reply 0 retweets 38 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [5/*] This is, of course, an epic disaster. With just 3 tools used, after 5 years there is _very little chance_ that your codebase will still build correctly. And that's at 90% and just 3 tools!

          2 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [6/*] If you look at 90%/10 tools, heaven forbid, that bottom line says your build almost certainly doesn't work after only 2 years... and in fact has barely a 30% chance of working after just 1 year!

          1 reply 0 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [7/*] Now imagine that we don't say "tool". We just say "dependency". The equation _remains the same_. Modern codebases often have 10s, 100s, or even 1000s of dependencies! What does that do to this graph?

          2 replies 1 retweet 55 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [8/*] Here is the graph of 10, 100, and 1000 dependencies, assuming a never-happens-on-github percentage chance of a dependency not breaking your build at 99%:pic.twitter.com/kHM2ayp2Y8

          1 reply 5 retweets 45 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [9/*] 10 dependencies sort-of works. It has a 60% chance of still working after 5 years. 100 dependencies doesn't work. It's less than 40% after just 1 year. 1000 dependencies breaks with almost complete certainty after a mere _four months_.

          3 replies 2 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [10/*] All of this is already something you know intuitively. Projects with lots of dependencies never work out-of-the-box. You are constantly updating, patching, and struggling to get their builds working, because every time something downstream changes, somebody has to fix it.

          3 replies 3 retweets 62 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [11/*] The "dependency culture" of modern programming has put us into a state where software requires perpetual, constant maintenance. No longer can we take a build and say "this works" and come back to it in a year. Great for job security, horrible for software quality.

          9 replies 13 retweets 121 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [12/*] As for speculation, I wonder, at least in part, if this answers the questions me and other people like me have, which is how do companies like Twitter employ thousands of developers while seemingly producing almost no additional software or improvements?

          2 replies 5 retweets 81 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 13

          [13/*] Well, if you assume that Twitter's collective codebase is a 1000+ dependency nightmare, as I assume it probably is, then the math kind of tells us the answer: the vast, vast majority of their time will have to be spent simply keeping their existing code working.

          10 replies 8 retweets 92 likes
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        11. End of conversation

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