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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @NickDrisc0ll and

      I, too, have complaints about people's behavior, but it has little to do with vaccination and more to do with mask wearing and other precautions, since those may be more important in the long run depending on what happens in the evolution of the virus.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    2. I Follow Tech Stuff‏ @IFollowTechStu1 Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @NickDrisc0ll and

      When you take a flight, do you research all the engineering of the aircraft so you can know every part that can fail, and how it can fail, and how that can potentially kill you? Or do you just trust that it's literally the safest form of travel?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @IFollowTechStu1 @NickDrisc0ll and

      Stop for a second and think about asking that question the first year airplanes were invented.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @IFollowTechStu1 and

      (Or in this case, I suppose, "the first year the public was allowed to fly in an airplane")

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. I Follow Tech Stuff‏ @IFollowTechStu1 Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @NickDrisc0ll and

      But I get it. The vaccine has not had such extensive and rigorous testing. But we have come quite a ways with medicine. I don't think we are going to unleash something that kills a hundreds of millions of people.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @IFollowTechStu1 @NickDrisc0ll and

      I don't think so either. But I think it's well within rational reasoning to say, "I'd like to see two or three years worth of testing before I want to do it myself". That seems _very_ rational to me, and one doesn't need to be a conspiracy theorist to think that way.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Andreas Svensson‏ @syranide Aug 12
      Replying to @cmuratori @IFollowTechStu1 and

      That decision does not occur in a vacuum though, delaying at scale means extra years of COVID spread, mutation, deaths, side-effects and pressure on society and medical services. Is the rational argument that we shouldn't have started vaccinations at all until "known safe"?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 12
      Replying to @syranide @IFollowTechStu1 and

      No, the rational argument is that we should do exactly what we did: partially vaccinated and partially not. Vaccinating 100% to eliminate the disease was never an option, because that would require the entire world to do it, which nobody has even suggested how that could happen.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 12
      Replying to @cmuratori @syranide and

      In other words, the standard human decision making process in the face of uncertainty: not everyone does the same thing. This is by design. It is the most fault tolerant by far, and _far_ better than 100% vax or 100% unvax. By _far_ when averaged over all scenarios.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 12
      Replying to @cmuratori @syranide and

      As your risk profile goes down (eg., as you have more years of data about your vaccination strategy and the mutation of the virus), the number of people getting vaccinated will likely go up, and that is _also correct_, because the more certainty, the more the balance should skew.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 12
      Replying to @cmuratori @syranide and

      The notion that humans are currently so good at collective decision making and scientific prediction that we _do not_ need to fault tolerant selection strategies is a great example of our current hubris, which frankly I find absurd.

      2:36 AM - 12 Aug 2021
      • 5 Likes
      • Sam Andrew Reece Zerker Ivan Braidi
      0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes

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