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cmuratori's profile
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
Casey Muratori
@cmuratori

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Casey Muratori

@cmuratori

I'm worried that the baby thinks people can't change.

Seattle
caseymuratori.com
Joined March 2009

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    1. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @cmuratori and

      so if theres a mythical person who did the research and came to the conclusion that they might want to wait for more data before getting the shot, and also take all the other precautions like mask wearing and avoiding crowds while waiting, then I wouldn't call that person dumb

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    2. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @cmuratori and

      but I'm pretty sure that person doesn't exist

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @sohakes and

      I guarantee you that person exists - they are just very scientific people, and obviously rare, as you might expect.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes and

      doesn't exist *in significant enough numbers to matter

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    5. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @sohakes and

      Well, I would argue the same about people who really understood the vaccine before taking it, and the possible long-term epidemiological outcomes, too :)

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    6. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes and

      we have a very useful shortcut for that called "listen to the experts" though

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
    7. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @sohakes and

      That sentiment I do object to. Saying "listen to the experts" presumes the person knows who is an expert, which is precisely the thing in question here. I point again to examples, such as "eat mostly carbohydrates" situation.

      3 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
    8. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @TylerGlaiel and

      As a simple example, when programming, should you listen to "experts" like Uncle Bob Martin? Bjarne Stroustrup? The average CS professor at a college?

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    9. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes and

      i mean programming is a mess for other reasons and also there isnt really a "search for truth" in the field like there is in other (actual) scientific fields. for math, physics, etc I would absolutely "trust the experts"

      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    10. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @TylerGlaiel @sohakes and

      Well maybe we can boil this down to the fact that I think medicine is about the same as programming research - some "experts" really are, but most aren't. I wouldn't consider it anywhere even in the remote ballpark of mathematics as a field in terms of competence.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
      Replying to @cmuratori @TylerGlaiel and

      (and of course I realize that hanging that out there is going to invite someone to come by and tell me that math as a field is also not competent, and if so, OK, but I am bad enough at math that it _looks pretty competent to me most of the time_ :)

      3:23 PM - 11 Aug 2021
      • 5 Likes
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      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tyler Glaiel‏Verified account @TylerGlaiel Aug 11
          Replying to @cmuratori @sohakes and

          I've been curious if there's ever been a case where something got proven and widely accepted in math and then later disproven (without altering underlying axioms or changing the definitions of things). Doesn't seem to be any cases there

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Casey Muratori‏ @cmuratori Aug 11
          Replying to @TylerGlaiel @sohakes and

          Definitely above my pay grade.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Jacob Christian Munch-Andersen‏ @NoHatCoder Aug 13
          Replying to @cmuratori @TylerGlaiel and

          Statistics is probably the worst field in this regard. Not that the maths are wrong as such, but a lot of mathematicians don't care about what wrong conclusions people draw, and they will often use an implicit 50% prior, because choosing a prior is impure maths.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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